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How seasonal is the local real estate market?

We often talk about the seasonality of the local market.  The hot Spring Market, the Summer Lull, and then the Fall Bump. But this is really anecdotal; we decided to look at the actual data to see what’s going on.

The different colors represent 3 years of data, with orange showing year-to-date data for 2017. We looked at number of units “under contract” (i.e., with accepted offers) each month in our local market. What we can see is that the Spring Market starts taking off in February, and how quickly it spikes upward seems to be correlated to the warming weather. The peak is in May or June; it seems we get a delayed peak in years where the the Spring thaw occurs later (apparently Punxsutawney Phil also predicts the Spring real estate market in Boston).

The low point is always the same: August. Then the Fall Market picks up and peaks in early October, then tapers off again until the next Spring.

Ok, I realize none of this is exactly earth shattering breaking news, but it’s good to see our hunch confirmed by real numbers. And it provides back up for sound advice we give our sellers: don’t list in August!

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